The Ministry of Finance’s calculation is based on the assumption that the restrictions would also hit Alko. However, this is not happening with current knowledge.
Treasury has assessed in its calculations to the Prime Minister’s Office what kind of economic effects the confinement and restrictions on movement could have.
The opinion estimates that as a result of the confinement and restrictions on movement, GDP growth would slow to 2.1% in 2021. According to the VM’s December forecast, GDP will grow by 2.5% in 2021.
– Restrictions on the movement of persons for three weeks are estimated to reduce consumption, which in turn would weaken the financial situation of companies and lead to some increased redundancies. Restrictive measures would reduce the movement of people and increase the risk of bankruptcy for companies that are already financially tight, the opinion says.
The opinion has assessed separately how tax revenues would be affected if access to Alko were not possible.
– Alko’s sales account for about three million euros in tax revenue in the spring for three weeks. Tax revenue will thus be reduced by no more than this amount if sales are not replaced by sales of grocery alcohol or consumers prepare for closure by buying alcoholic beverages in stock.
Opinion delivered on 16 February. The movement restrictions were discussed in more detail this week, when it became clear that they did not restrict visiting Alko. Alko will therefore be allowed to do business with these prospects, despite possible future travel restrictions.
Read more: Can I service the car, visit Alko or buy clothes? 18 questions and answers on movement restrictions
In the statement of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, various restrictive measures have been calculated to affect about half of the Finnish population. Restrictions would be regional.
On dispensing stoppage of three weeks a half Finland in respect of the tax would mean a loss of about EUR 3 million.
– However, statistics for 2020 show that some or all of the decline in on-trade (-40%) is likely to have shifted to other taxable consumption.
In the opinion the effects of the reduction in private car use will also be assessed.
– If private cars were to be reduced by 25% in half of the population for 3 weeks (equivalent to April 2020 sales), this would mean a reduction in energy tax revenue of EUR 10-15 million. in euros.
The planned movement restrictions would apply to Helsinki, Vantaa, Espoo, Kauniainen and Turku. Movement restrictions also include exceptions that allow movement, which you can read more about from here.
Read more: Is it possible to travel to grandma’s or cottage, is movement monitored, does the booked trip have to be canceled? 14 questions and answers about movement restrictions
Read more: Will there be an immediate fine if you do not follow the mask compulsion in the store? This is how the police respond
Source site www.is.fi