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does Xavier Bertrand’s entry into the campaign shift the lines to the right?

Xavier Bertrand officially launched his candidacy for the Élysée on Thursday. Was the operation successful?

So so. Yes, because he said aloud what he had already suggested for months and that this official status can give a new resonance to what he will say. Yes because it displays a clear objective and an outline of a square program, without ambiguity. And yes because, on this occasion, he received the enthusiastic support of those who already supported him.

Like this, so there is a “but”.

There was no blast effect, we did not feel a great breath rise or the lines move. So of course, his interview in Le Point triggered heavy fire among Emmanuel Macron’s troops. This is an indication of his political dangerousness for the President (and it is always better, in politics, to face fire rather than silence). But on the right, no rallying, no acknowledgment of receipt or favorable signal from any leader of the Republicans.

This declaration of candidacy, it would therefore be a blow for nothing?

Not necessarily, no. Xavier Bertrand had two immediate problems to resolve. The first is to do everything to establish himself as the natural candidate of the right in the next presidential election. That’s why he left early, to now occupy the media and political ground and then accelerate, accelerate. Do everything to avoid the primaries on which, on the contrary, his right-wing opponents rely. He has therefore laid the groundwork, we will see in the coming weeks whether the polls incorporate this reality that he would like to impose. But beware, the more he installs the evidence of his candidacy for the supreme position, the more he complicates his second problem: he is already a candidate for regional elections in Hauts-de-France. And he just said to the voters, vote for me, but if you elect me, then I’ll hit another target right away. It is complicated…

What about his program?

There he does the job. With three main axes: the restoration of the authority of the State, the work to fight against the declassification, and the territories to overcome the impotent State. Not necessarily original, but he taps on each of Emmanuel Macron’s weak points: the regal, the “Gilet-yellowing” and the takeover of the administration. The head of state is warned: his most dangerous right-wing opponent, at this time, will campaign on the balance sheet of the five-year term. No blast effect, therefore, but a bad wind that could pick up.

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