#In the minds of stock market operators, the year 2020 will remain as the most violent and unpredictable in the (recent?) #History of the #Casablanca #Stock #Exchange. #Several events marked this atypical year full of surprises. #Summary.
There is no lack of qualifiers to describe 2020. A vintage that saw extremes and records (good and bad) multiply on the stock market. The year has indeed started calmly on the #Casablanca #Stock #Exchange. A usual sequence marked by strategic adjustments, where institutional investors and UCITS bet on stocks deemed to be promising. The #Masi therefore closed the first two months up 0.73% (+ 2.96% in #January alone). The consensus was bullish in a context of low interest rates and the outsourcing of financial management from institutions to UCITS, which would constantly fuel the stock market in flux.
#Except that a few weeks later, everything degenerated under the influence of the pandemic.
#March: the tipping point
The epidemic wave that distinguished #Morocco from afar, did not take long to reach its ratings: the first contaminations were identified, the state of emergency decreed and the borders closed in the wake. #On #March 6, in a session that looked like a stock market crash, the MASI index took water, dropping 3.05%.
#Completely deprived of benchmarks and support in the face of this pandemic which immobilized the national economy, investors had no other choice but to capitulate. The tumble thus continued. #On #March 12, the index lost 13%, the 18th over 26% since the start of the year.
The breakage was however contained thanks to the decision of the AMMC to reduce the thresholds for variations in the prices of financial instruments from ± 10% to ± 4%.
The market also found a bottom, as a basis for the rebound, between 8,980 and 9,000 points where valuations became unjustified.
A #Bounce (almost) as impressive as the fall
#From #May, the #Casablanca coast began to show some signs of recovery. #It was driven by the partial recovery of the country’s economic activity, the gradual deconfinement as well as the decision of #Bank #Al-Maghrib to reduce its key rate by 50 basis points to 1.5% and to fully release the bank account. reserve for the benefit of banks.
#Note that the day after this decision, on #June 17, the market ended with a remarkable rise of 3.51% to 10,438.48 points.
Then came the summer period, with its share of heaviness, bringing no change to the structure of the market. The #Masi remained, during this period, stuck between 10,100 and 10,300 points. The summer sessions paraded in the greatest calm in the absence of news on the macro and microeconomic front. The “stop and go” of economic activity with the new local restrictive measures caused some phases of volatility without weighing on the market.
#It was not until #November that the market recovered significantly. #Driven by the announcement of several international laboratories with an efficiency greater than 90% of their vaccines against #Covid-19, the return to the distribution of dividends from the banking sector, as well as by the significant appreciation of the weighting of #Morocco in the MSCI FM at 13.4% against 8.5% in #August 2020, giving it more visibility with international fund managers.
#In #December, other catalysts supported the dynamics of the equity market. #This is a significant easing on rates after the remarkable lifting of #Morocco internationally ($ 3 billion) and the recognition of the #United #States of #Morocco’s sovereignty over its #Sahara, a decision which has stimulated several sectors. , especially cyclicals.
#In this recovery movement as strong as the fall of #March, the MASI gained more than 25% on #December 29.
#Collective management has shown resilience
The collective management industry has shown itself to be resilient overall during the health crisis, despite a decline in performance in “equity” and “diversified” funds.
#In the midst of the crisis, fund managers were able to achieve a net collection of nearly 10 billion DH between #February and #May, while assets under management exceeded the symbolic bar of 500 billion DH.
#At the same time, it should be noted that institutional investors, usually present on the equity market, invested in it for the first time in 2020 via dedicated funds. They notably participated in the rebound in equities during this period.
The year 2020 also saw the development of OPCIs. There have been successive operations of transferring assets from banks to real estate funds. #Latest examples to date, those of BMCI and BCP.
#Thanks to this mechanism, these banks have eased their balance sheets, the pressure on their own funds and have immediate liquidity. They have also earned capital gains (making it possible to secure or boost their results), especially since they will be exempt until 2023.
#At the end of #September, the net outstanding amount of OPCI assets was DH 3.55 billion.
#Forecasts that fall apart
#While the pandemic continued its destructive work of increasing the human toll and pushing economies into recession, analysts were trying to quantify the impacts and predict economic scenarios for the post-crisis period.
#Resumption in “V”, in “U”, or even in “W”, the forecasts never were so obsolete as in 2020. #Very few analysts anticipated the brutality of the crisis. #Even those who have, have not always converted their forecasts into performance.
#Sectors: tops & flops
#In terms of sectoral variations, 7 of the 24 sectors represented on the #Casablanca market show positive performances (as of #December 30, 2020). The “#Hardware, #Software & IT #Services” index tops the list with an increase of 50.55%, boosted by HPS, #Disway and #Microdata, which are up 73%, 29.51% and 21.18% respectively.
“Pharmaceutical industry” ranks second in sector performance with 17.45%, thanks to #Sothema (+ 23.38%), followed by “Mines” which benefits from the good performance of #Managem (+ 34.59%) and its subsidiary SMI (+ 23.53%).
#Among the sectors that emerged as winners this year, there are also “Distributors” (+ 9.83%), driven by #Label’#Vie (+ 19.23%).
#In contrast, the sector of “#Participation and real estate promotions” shows the largest decrease (-43.66%), followed by “#Leisure and #Hotels” (-35.26%), “#Forestry and #Paper” (-31.81%) and “Transport” (-20.13%).
The “Banks” index shows -15.55%, while the drop in the “Telecommunications” sector is 6.54%.
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