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Curfew at 6 p.m.: why the map of departments could change by Saturday

#Has the Côte d’#Or really escaped the 6 p.m. curfew that the government will put in place from #January 2 to curb the #Covid-19 epidemic? #Some departments, not selected in the 20 of the current map of the #Ministry of #Health, could still have surprises. #Indeed, if we base ourselves on the criteria indicated by the administration, some zones could still switch by #Saturday, others perhaps leave the list.

#This number of twenty “will obviously be able to evolve”, himself agreed #Wednesday evening the spokesman of the government, #Gabriel #Attal. #And to specify that the authorities had based themselves on two criteria to draw up this list: the incidence rate, that is to say the number of cases per 100,000 inhabitants over a week, and the same rate among people. elderly. “#We targeted the departments in which the incidence rate exceeded 200 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants on the overall population and / or over 65s,” explains #Olivier Véran’s office to #Le #Parisien.

#Incidence greater than 200 in twelve departments

#Unfortunately, the department-wide data available on the platform can only be used to calculate the incidence rate among people aged at least 60 or 70, and not 65. #If one is based on the level “70 years and over”, the twenty departments concerned tick one of the two boxes, according to the last available data relating to the week of #December 21 to 27. #In detail, twelve have an incidence rate greater than 200 in the population, the other eight only among the elderly.

#Conversely, the #Somme and the #Cher should, it seems, also appear in the list. #In the #Cher, the incidence rate is 236 among those 60 and over and 297 among those 70 and over. #In the #Somme, there are respectively 207 and 261. These two departments benefit from an incidence rate in the general population well below 200: 183.5 in the #Cher and 135 in the #Somme. #Other indicators, such as resuscitation capacities, could also be taken into account by the authorities.

A refined analysis on a case-by-case basis?

“The incidence rates remain very high but they are declining. I spoke this morning with the prefect, who confirmed to me that the #Cher will not a priori be confirmed by the passage to the advanced curfew “, indicates to the #Parisian deputy #François #Cormier-Bouligeon, who calls for” to respect the #New #Year’s #Eve precautionary instructions ”. The high levels reached in the elderly could also be explained in part by the discovery of “clusters” in nursing homes.

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The Côte d’#Or, where the incidence rate is 183.5 in the general population and would be 194 among those over 65, also appears very close to the fateful threshold. #On #Wednesday, the mayor of the #Dijon prefecture, #François #Rebsamen, was delighted to have had the attentive ear of #Minister #Olivier Véran: “I spoke at length with him before the defense council, he explained to the #Parisian. I told him that if he asked me my opinion, I felt a real fed up in #Dijon and I suggested that he wait before acting. A decisive phone call in the decision to remove the Côte d’#Or from the list of advanced curfews? “#It would be pretentious of me to say that,” retorts the former socialist minister. #But I still think that if he had not called me, the entire #Bourgogne #Franche-Comté region would have been concerned. “

#Conversely, other territories which appear in the list of 20 departments could theoretically leave it. #In #Ardèche, for example, the incidence rate is 152 in the general population, 177 among those aged 60 and over, and 227 among those aged 70 and over. The latter figure is even down 40% from that observed a week earlier.

The limits of the method

#All this raises questions about the two criteria put forward by the government, especially since the number of new cases must be interpreted with caution these days. #On the one hand, the number of tests exploded before the end of the year holidays. #This mechanically led to an increase in the number of positive people. #Indeed, many asymptomatic would not have gone to be tested without the approach of the #Christmas holidays and the fear of infecting those close to them on this occasion.

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#On the other hand, #December 25 is included in the calculation of the incidence rate for two days. #However, as many laboratories and pharmacies were closed at the time, few people tested positive that day. #Which, mechanically, lowered the number of cases identified over the week. “We are giving ourselves a few days to watch how the situation is stabilizing,” said #Gabriel #Attal.

#However, it is on #January 1 that the government and / or local authorities will announce which departments are going under advanced curfew from 6 p.m. on #Saturday. #Some did not wait. #In #Meurthe-et-Moselle, for example, the prefect confirmed this #Wednesday that the territory will be affected. The list could then evolve further, but we do not know how quickly.

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##Curfew #map #departments #change ##Saturday


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